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Requirements for an emergency risk assessment and procedure for the preparation of a risk assessment

Issuer:Minister of the Interior
Type:regulation
In force from:01.07.2017
In force until: In force
Translation published:04.09.2017

Requirements for an emergency risk assessment and procedure for the preparation of a risk assessment

Passed 19.06.2017 Annex 28

This regulation is established under § 9 (3) of the Emergency Act.

§ 1.  Definitions

 (1) For the purposes of this regulation, ’scenario’ means the possible or expected course of an event.

 (2) For the purposes of this regulation, ’probable worst-case scenario’ means a possible scenario with the severest consequences, delimited by specific time and territory.

 (3) For the purposes of this regulation, ’capability cap’ means the complete or partial incapability of the authorities and persons resolving an emergency or involved in resolving an emergency to carry out activities necessary to prevent or prepare for or resolve an emergency.

 (4) For the purposes of this regulation, ’measure’ means an activity the purpose of which is to improve the readiness of authorities and persons to prevent an emergency or resolve it better.

§ 2.  Emergency risk assessment and preparation thereof

 (1) An emergency risk assessment (hereinafter risk assessment) is a document in which the probability and consequences of an emergency are assessed and proposals for preventing an emergency are made.

 (2) The preparation of a risk assessment shall be coordinated by the authority in charge of preparing an emergency risk assessment designated under § 9 (1) of the Emergency Act (hereinafter authority in charge) who shall involve the relevant authorities and persons in the preparation of the risk assessment.

 (3) A risk assessment shall consist of the general part, analysis, capability analysis and conclusions.

 (4) The general part, analysis and conclusions of a risk assessment shall be prepared on the form provided for in Annex 1 to this regulation.

§ 3.  Analysis of risk assessment

  The analysis of a risk assessment shall present:
 1) the event types that could lead to an emergency;
 2) the definition of the emergency;
 3) an analysis of the events that have taken place and national and international statistics, maps, forecast, expert assessment or other information which all support the analysis;
 4) the event scenario and its description;
 5) an assessment of the probability and consequences of the scenario;
 6) the risk category of the scenario.

§ 4.  Preparation of scenario

 (1) The authority in charge shall compile the information necessary for analysing an event and on the basis of the information obtained and an expert assessment shall prepare the probable worst-case scenario of the event which shall be supplemented by regional or other parts, if necessary.

 (2) Several scenarios may be prepared for one event, if necessary.

 (3) If it is discovered in the course of the analysis that the effects and consequences of two or more events are similar, the scenarios may be combined and one scenario may be prepared for the events.

§ 5.  Assessment of probability of scenario

 (1) When assessing the probability of a scenario, the relevant statistical data, surveys, analyses, expert assessments or other relevant information shall be relied upon.

 (2) The probability of a scenario shall be assessed according to the scale provided for in Annex 2 to this regulation.

 (3) If the probability of a scenario cannot be assessed according to Annex 2 to this regulation, another method shall be applied which shall be approved by the Ministry of the Interior beforehand.

§ 6.  Assessment of consequences of scenario

 (1) The consequences of a scenario shall be analysed on the basis of the following domains:
 1) the life and health of people;
 2) property;
 3) natural environment;
 4) vital services.

 (2) The consequences of a scenario shall be assessed by determining their severity and the overall assessment of the consequences shall be presented according to Annex 3 to this regulation.

 (3) If a scenario has consequences of very different severity, the authority in charge may, with the approval of the authorities and persons involved, raise or lower the overall assessment of the consequences calculated according to Annex 3 to this regulation by one degree.

 (4) If the consequences of a scenario cannot be assessed according to Annex 3 to this regulation, another method may also be applied which shall be approved by the Ministry of the Interior beforehand.

§ 7.  Determination of risk category of scenario

 (1) A risk category shall be assigned for each scenario on the basis of the probability of its occurrence and the severity of the consequence according to Annex 4 to this regulation.

 (2) With the approval of the authorities and persons involved, the authority in charge may raise the risk category of the scenario by one degree if significant capability caps become apparent in the course of the capability analysis.

§ 8.  Capability analysis

 (1) A capability analysis shall be prepared for each scenario.

 (2) The capability analysis shall describe the activities necessary to prevent, prepare for and resolve an emergency, the readiness and existing capabilities of the authorities resolving the emergency and the related parties; ascertain the capability caps, present measures for overcoming the capability caps and the estimated cost thereof and set out the authorities liable for compliance with the measures.

 (3) As activities referred to in subsection (2) of this section, the activities related to managing an emergency, protecting the people in danger and risk communication shall be described among other things.

 (4) The following shall be analysed for each activity:
 1) the existence and sufficiency of technology and equipment, including operation stock;
 2) the existence and sufficiency of the personnel necessary to resolve the situation;
 3) the existence of the skills and knowledge necessary to resolve the situation and, if necessary, the need for training;
 4) whether rules and instructions exist and are up to date.

 (5) The capability analysis shall be prepared according to Annex 5 to this regulation.

§ 9.  Conclusions of risk assessment

  The conclusions of a risk assessment shall present:
 1) an overall assessment of the state’s readiness to resolve an emergency;
 2) a list of critical capability caps;
 3) a list of internal measures;
 4) a list of measures that require the cooperation of several authorities or a decision made by a ministry or the Government of the Republic;
 5) a list of risk communication measures and the authorities liable for the compliance therewith;
 6) a list of scenarios the resolution of which requires the preparation of an emergency response plan;
 7) an assessment as to which resolution of an emergency caused by the event scenario may require the declaration of an emergency situation;
 8) a proposal concerning the size of a stock, including operation stock, necessary to resolve an emergency.

§ 10.  Preparation of risk form

 (1) A risk form shall be prepared for every event that leads to an emergency, except when the risk assessment includes a state secret.

 (2) The risk form is part of the risk assessment prepared to increase public awareness, in which a summary of the most important conclusions concerning people are presented, including measures applied to protect the people and risk communication measures.

 (3) The authority in charge shall publish the risk form on the authority’s website no later than within two weeks as of the approval of the risk assessment and shall introduce the most important conclusions of the risk assessment to the public.

 (4) The risk form shall be prepared according to Annex 6 to this regulation.

§ 11.  Coordination and approval of risk assessment

 (1) A risk assessment shall be coordinated with the authorities involved in the preparation thereof, the relevant ministry and the Ministry of the Interior.

 (2) When the emergency risk assessment has been coordinated according to subsection (1), the head of the authority in charge shall approve it by a decree.

 (3) The approved risk assessment shall be sent to the Internal Security Service, the Foreign Intelligence Service and the Ministry of the Interior for their information.

§ 12.  Updating risk assessment

 (1) The authority in charge shall assess together with the authorities involved in the preparation of a risk assessment whether the risk assessment is up to date on a regular basis but no less than once every three years and, if necessary, shall improve the risk assessment.

 (2) If the preconditions that served as the basis for developing the current risk assessment scenarios and for calculating the probability and consequences have changed, the risk assessment shall be brought up to date according to the changes.

 (3) The authority in charge shall inform the Ministry of the Interior in writing that the risk assessment is up to date or the preconditions referred to in subsection (2) have changed and shall send the improved risk assessment.

 (4) If the authority in charge fails to start to renew the risk assessment due to the preconditions referred to in subsection (2) of this section having changed, the Ministry of the Interior has the right to demand that the renewal of the risk assessment be started and the renewed risk assessment be presented.

§ 13.  Entry into force of regulation

  This regulation enters into force on 1 July 2017.

Andres Anvelt
Minister of the Interior

Lauri Lugna
Secretary General

Annex 1 Risk assessment

Annex 2 Probability assessment table

Annex 3 Severities of consequence assessment

Annex 4 Risk matrix

Annex 5 Capability analysis

Annex 6 Risk form